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  • Formula 1 05.11.2010 No Comments

    With two races to go, we’re now at the business end of the Formula 1 season, with five drivers still technically in contention to win the title. Unfortunately, the Brazilian Grand Prix takes place at 03:00 AEDST, so you’d have to be pretty keen to get up for it.

    Alonso goes into the penultimate race with the most momentum after Vettel and Webber failed to score points in Korea. The consensus seems to be that Red Bull have the most pace, but that Alonso is in the best position to win the title. If results go his way, Alonso could be crowned champion before heading to Abu Dhabi for the final race. However, one point to remember is Alonso is down to his last allowed engine for the season. Should he require another one for either Brazil or Abu Dhabi, he will be hit with a 10 position grid penalty, which would really put a spanner in the works.

    McLaren are currently off the pace of Red Bull and Ferrari. They will likely need to rely on mistakes, retirements and the weather to secure more points than their main rivals. Due to the inconsistency of Massa, Red Bull are in the box seat to take the Constructor’s championship. They currently hold 426 points versus 399 for McLaren and 374 for Ferrari.

    Rain is expected over the weekend, with Kubica stating that the Brazilian Grand Prix could be a lottery. Remember, Button has had an uncanny ability to make good decisions in the face of weather uncertainty this season. Changing weather patterns during the race will have a bigger impact than consistent rain, so it’s worth paying close attention to weather forecasts. The more unpredictable the weather, the better value the odds will be on the likes of Button, Kubica and other outside contenders.

    Red Bull have announced they will allow Vettel and Webber to fight it out this race. However, depending on the result, they may impose team orders for the final race in Abu Dhabi. Red Bull are optimistic about their chances in Brazil, with Vettel stating he believes the Interlagos circuit should suit Red Bull.

    Drivers Championship Scenario Analysis

    The following is courtesy of the BBC:

    • If Alonso wins in Brazil, he will be champion unless Webber is higher than fourth
    • If Alonso is second, he will be champion unless Webber is higher than eighth, Hamilton higher than fourth or Vettel wins
    • If Alonso is third, he will be champion unless Webber finishes in the top 10, Hamilton in the top four and Vettel in the top three
    • If Alonso does not finish on the podium, it will go to Abu Dhabi
    • Button can only stay in contention if he finishes first or second but is out if Alonso finishes in the top six or if Webber is in the top two
    • Vettel must beat Alonso on track to stay in contention

    The 2010 Season thus Far

    Below are the results for the first 17 races this season.

    Round Grand Prix Pole position Winning driver
    1 Bahrain Grand Prix Vettel Alonso
    2 Australian Grand Prix Vettel Button
    3 Malaysian Grand Prix Webber Vettel
    4 Chinese Grand Prix Vettel Button
    5 Spanish Grand Prix Webber Webber
    6 Monaco Grand Prix Webber Webber
    7 Turkish Grand Prix Webber Hamilton
    8 Canadian Grand Prix Hamilton Hamilton
    9 European Grand Prix Vettel Vettel
    10 British Grand Prix Vettel Webber
    11 German Grand Prix Vettel Alonso
    12 Hungarian Grand Prix Vettel Webber
    13 Belgian Grand Prix Webber Hamilton
    14 Italian Grand Prix Alonso Alonso
    15 Singapore Grand Prix Alonso Alonso
    16 Japanese Grand Prix Vettel Vettel
    17 Korean Grand Prix Vettel Alonso

     

    Form Guide

    Below are the current F1 standings, along with the points classifications for the past four races.

      Driver Points Korea
    24/10/2010
    Japan
    10/10/2010
    Singapore
    26/09/2010
    Italy
    12/09/2010
    Belgium
    29/08/2010
    1 Alonso 231
    25
    15
    25
    25
    (ret ) 0
    2 Webber 220
    (ret ) 0
    18
    15
    8
    18
    3 Hamilton 210
    18
    10
    (ret ) 0
    (ret ) 0
    25
    4 Vettel 206
    (ret ) 0
    25
    18
    12
    (15th) 0
    5 Button 189
    (12th) 0
    12
    12
    18
    (ret ) 0
    6 Massa 143
    15
    (ret ) 0
    4
    15
    12
    7 Kubica 124
    10
    (ret ) 0
    6
    4
    15
    8 Rosberg 122
    (ret ) 0
    (ret ) 0
    10
    10
    8
    9 Schumacher 66
    12
    8
    (13th) 0
    2
    6
    10 Barrichello 47
    6
    2
    8
    1
    (ret ) 0

     

    Odds

    Below are selected Luxbet odds (subject to change).

    Betting Tips

    For pole position betting, you can currently get 2.84 on Vettel with Betfair, which is good value given he has won 9 out of 17 qualifying sessions this season, including the last two races. Odds of 3.95 on Webber aren’t too bad either. Any bets on drivers other than Vettel, Webber, Alonso, Hamilton and Button are probably going to be a waste of money, even if it does rain. Only Vettel (x9), Webber (x5), Alonso (x2) and Hamilton (x1) have secured pole positions this year. If you are the cautious type, I would delay placing bets until you have seen the practice session results.

    You can currently get 1.79 odds on a Safety Car being deployed with Betfair, which seems to be good value given the weather forecast on Sunday.

    I would hold off on race winner betting until the qualifying session has concluded on Saturday. Take note that only Alonso (x5), Button (x2), Vettel (x3), Webber (x4) and Hamilton (x3) have won races this season, although Alonso’s victory in Germany was a result of Massa pulling aside to let him win. When considering whether to back the pole position winner, keep in mind that the driver on pole has gone on to win 7 of the 17 races so far this season.

  • Football 05.11.2010 No Comments

    Here is a preview of the Week 11 fixtures in the English Premier League. Tottenham follow up from their mid-week win over Inter Milan with a tough away game against Bolton. Fulham v Aston Villa and Liverpool v Chelsea are two other games worth keeping an eye on.

    Odds

    Below are selected Luxbet odds (subject to change).

    Tips & Info

    Bolton v Tottenham

    • Tottenham will still be on a high after their mid-week victory over Inter Milan, although Bolton have a good home record against Tottenham. Bolton have only lost twice this season, but have conceded at least one goal in their last nine games. Bolton have played out six draws in their ten Premier League games this season. They have scored a goal in eight out of their ten fixtures.
    • Andy’s tips: back a draw, back a 1-1 scoreline, back under 2.5 goals
    • Lawro’s prediction: 1-1
    • Addicted’s tips: back both teams to score, back Kevin Davies to score.
    • Auls’ prediction: 2-2
    • Auls’ tip: back both teams to score

    Blackpool v Everton

    Man Utd v Wolves

    • Man Utd are in good form at the moment, having not lost in their last 22 competitive games. While Nani, Fletcher and Rooney will be on the sideline, Man Utd are still be expected to win comfortably. Man Utd striker Hernandez was rested mid-week, and he’ll be keen to continue is impressive form while Rooney is out of the picture. Wolves are one of the favourites for relegation this season, although they enjoyed a 2-1 win last week against Man City. For comparative purposes, Wolves lost 2-0 away at Chelsea two weeks ago, hence a popular prediction is a 2-0 scoreline.
    • Andy’s tips: back Manchester United, back a 2-0 scoreline
    • Lawro’s prediction: 2-0
    • Auls’ prediction: 1-0
    • Auls’ tip: back Man Utd to win by 1 goal

    Fulham v Aston Villa

    Blackburn v Wigan

    Birmingham v West Ham

    Sunderland v Stoke City

    • Sunderland suffered a 5-1 mauling against Newcastled last week, and Stoke City are a tough team to play, with their imposing height and dead-ball specialists.
    • Andy’s tips: back Sunderland, back a 1-0 scoreline
    • Lawro’s prediction: 2-1

    Arsenal v Newcastle Utd

    • Arsenal have a very good, consistent record against weaker sides, although Newcastle will still be on a high after their 5-1 thrashing of Sunderland.
    • Lawro’s prediction: 3-0

    West Brom v Man City

    • There have been reported some rifts in the ranks at Man City, who have lost their last three games in all competitions. West Brom are undefeated at home this season.
    • Lawro’s prediction: 0-2

    Liverpool v Chelsea

    • Both Liverpool and Chelsea enjoyed mid-week success in European football, with neither side fielding a full strength starting lineup. Chelsea certainly have a stronger team, but Liverpool are tough to beat at home.
    • Lawro’s prediction: 1-1
Centrebet Aus Freebet
  • Football 03.11.2010 No Comments

    Here is a preview of the Wednesday Champions League fixtures. It’s been a good week for the English clubs thus far, with Manchester United and Tottenham both enjoying convincing wins. Chelsea are expected to win comfortably, while Arsenal are set for a tough away fixture.

    Odds

    Below are selected Luxbet odds (subject to change).

    Tips & Info

    Betfair’s multibet tips:

    • For approximately 10-1 odds: back Shakhtar to lose to Arsenal (2.66), AC Milan to draw with Real Madrid (3.26) and for there to be under 3.5 goals in the Chelsea v Spartak Moscow match (1.5)
    • For approximately 100-1 odds: back AC Milan to draw with Real Madrid (3.26), Shakhtar to lose to Arsenal (2.64), FC Basel to beat Roma (2.64), Auxerre to draw with Ajax (3.36), Chelsea to beat Spartak Moscow (1.23) and under 4.5 goals in Zilina’s game with Marseille (1.08)

    CFR Cluj v Bayern Munich

    • Vasily’s tips: bet on Bayern Munich to lose, back both teams to score
    • ROzsolt’s tips: back both teams to score (7/10 confidence), back a 1-1 scoreline

    Shakhtar Donetsk v Arsenal

    • Andy’s tips: back Shakhtar Donetsk and Arsenal to draw, back Shakhtar Donetsk and Arsenal to draw 1-1
    • Addicted’s tip: back both teams to score

    AC Milan v Real Madrid

    • Andy’s tips: back Real Madrid to beat AC Milan, back over 2.5 goals
    • Jonas’ tips: back Real Madrid to win, back Real Madrid to win 2-1
    • Auls’ tips: back over 2.5 goals, back 2-1 and 1-2 scorelines

    Chelsea v Spartak Moscow

  • bet365 is currently offering winner bonuses on pre-game NFL, NCAAF, NBA, NCAAB and MLB wagers. This is available on the following markets: Spread/Run Line, Game Totals, First-Half Point Spread, Second-Half Point Spread, First-Half Totals and Second-Half Totals.

    Place a pre-game parlay of 2 or more selections combining teams in any of these competitions and if successful you will receive the following bonuses to your winnings:

    Bonus Bet Type
    Doubles 5% bonus
    Trebles 7.5% bonus
    4-folds 10% bonus
    5-folds 15% bonus
    6-folds 20% bonus
    7-folds 25% bonus
    8-folds 30% bonus
    9-folds 35% bonus
    10-folds 40% bonus
    11-folds 45% bonus
    12-folds and upwards 50% bonus

     

    About Parlay / Multi Betting / Accumulators

     

    For those of you who aren’t familiar with parlay betting, “a parlay or accumulator is a single bet that links together two or more individual wagers and is dependent on all of those wagers winning together. The benefit of the parlay is that there are much higher payoffs than placing each individual bet separately since the difficulty of hitting it is much higher. If any of the bets in the parlay loses, the entire parlay loses. If any of the plays in the parlay ties, or “pushes”, the parlay reverts to a lower number of teams with the odds reducing accordingly” (Wikipedia).

    As an example, for following English Premier League fixtures with the odds:

    Everton vs Stoke City: Everton (1.55), Draw (3.70), Stoke City (6.50)
    Arsenal vs West Ham: Arsenal (1.16), Draw (7.00), West Ham (16.00)
    Blackburn vs Chelsea: Blackburn (8.00), Draw (4.10), Chelsea (1.44)

    Suppose you believe Everton and Stoke City will draw, while Arsenal and Chelsea will both win. If you bet $10 on each outcome, and all three wagers won, you would win: $27.00 + $1.60 + $4.40 = $33 in profit

    If, however you placed a $30 multibet using the three events instead, you would have odds of 3.70×1.16×1.44 = 6.18048.

    If all three predictions came true, you would win $30x(6.18048 – 1) = $155.41 in profit. This is substantially more than had you made three individual bets of $10, but this type of bet is substantially more risky, because if you got, say, the Everton vs Stoke City result wrong, you would lose $30, while you would have only lost $4 had you made individual bets.

    One key aspect of mult betting is that, 99.99% of the time, you cannot create multibets using betting selections from the same sporting event. For example, you can’t combine a multibet on Chelsea to win and Drogba to score. You can only combine bets that are completely independent.

    Another feature of multi betting is the bookmaker’s margin increases as you add more events to your multibet. For this reason, bookmakers are very keen to offer them to you, despite the huge windfalls you can potentially gain if you win. Many bookmakers are quick to publish stories of winners to encourage others. For example “bet365 customer Cory K, from Canada, recently … placed a $100 12-fold on American Football, which won him $199,306. Thanks to our 50% Parlay Bonus, he received a massive $99,603 on top of his original winnings!”

    If you have a go at parlay betting yourself, I recommend taking a conservative approach. If you create a multibet with a staggering potential profit, with odds of 200+, I recommend betting $1 on that bet, rather than $10, $100, etc. It’s very easy to get carried away with potential winnings, whilst forgetting the probabilities. Many parlay betters have stories of “if only this one event had gone my way, I would have won huge…”

    One way in which I have successfully employed multi betting is to find a low odds outcome (1.01, 1.05, etc) that I feel very confident in, and combine it with other bets to create a series of paired events (doubles). This provides an odds boost to my other bets. Obviously, if your low odds bet loses, then you will lose every bet that was paired with it.

PinnacleSports.com Online Sports Betting
  • Football 26.10.2010 No Comments

    The sports writers at Betfair are very bullish on Manchester United in their Carling Cup tie against Wolves, but you have to be careful with Carling Cup fixtures, because the larger sides tend to field weakened teams. As is often the case with the League Cup, a lot comes down to how much each side wants to progress.

    The fixtures

    Note that most fixtures kick off at 7:45 PM local time, which is 5:45 AM AEDST, so be sure to set your alarm early for Wednesday and Thursday morning!

    Tuesday, 26 October 2010

    • Birmingham v Brentford
    • Ipswich v Northampton
    • Leicester v West Brom
    • Wigan v Swansea
    • Man Utd v Wolverhampton

    Wednesday, 27 October 2010

    • Aston Villa v Burnley
    • Newcastle v Arsenal
    • West Ham v Stoke

    Selected odds

    I apologise for not having the time to compile odds across numerous bookmakers this week. Below are selected Luxbet odds (subject to change).

    Pundits’ predictions and tidbits

    Man Utd v Wolverhampton

    • Notes (primarily sourced from the BBC):
      • Wolves haven’t won any of their last ten games in regular time. They required extra time to get past Southend and Notts County earlier in the competition.
      • Man Utd have won 15 of their 18 home games since their loss to Leeds in January
      • Man Utd are expected to field a largely second-string XI, with Michael Owen up front and Javier Hernandez rested
      • Wolves have fielded a second string team against Man Utd in the past
      • Man Utd have won the League Cup in three of the past five years
      • Michael Owen has scored seven goals in his last nine appearances in the Carling Cup
      • Wolves have not won at Old Trafford in over 30 years, and lost both of last season’s Premier League fixtures against Man Utd without scoring a goal
      • Wolves have a poor League Cup record: the last time they progressed beyond the fourth round was in 1995
      • Five of the last six League Cup matches involving Wolves have gone to extra time
    • Befair’s tip: Back a Man Utd clean sheet because Wolverhampton have failed to score in their last six trips to Old Trafford. They have also struggled to score on the road so far this season.
    • Andy’s tip:: if Owen starts, back him to score a goal
    • Gooners Guide tips: Back Man Utd to win 1-0, back under 2.5 goals
    • Other Befair tips: bet on under 2.5 goals and a 2-0 win to Man Utd

    Other fixture tips

  • General 19.10.2010 No Comments

    With a number of mid-week games for the Champions League coming up, below are some betting tips.

    Arsenal v Shakhtar Donetsk
    Andy’s tips:
    – Back Arsenal to win
    – Back Arsenal to win 2-0
    Patrick’s tip:
    – Back both teams to score
    Auls’ tip:
    – Back Arsenal to win

    Spartak Moscow v Chelsea
    Andy’s tip:
    – Back Chelsea to win
    Pantocrator’s tip:
    – Back Chelsea (-0.25) as a handicap bet
    Auls’ tips:
    – Back a 0-1 score
    – Back under 2.5 goals
    My comments
    – Take note that Chelsea will be without Drogba, Alex and Lampard

    Ajax v Auxerre
    Patrick’s tip:
    – Back Ajax to win to nil

    Bayern Munich v CFR 1907 Cluj-Napoca
    Patrick’s tip:
    – Back Bayern Munich (-1.5 handicap) to beat Cluj
    ROzolt’s tip:
    – Back a 2-1 scoreline
    – Back over 2.5 goals

    Roma v Basle
    Patrick’s tip:
    – Back over 2.5 goals

    Rangers v Valencia
    Andy’s tip:
    – Back Rangers to win

    Inter Milan v Tottenham
    Andy’s tip:
    – Back 1-1 draw

    Real Madrid v AC Milan
    Maldini’s tips::
    – Back Real Madrid to win
    – Back under 2.5 goals
    Patrick’s tip:
    – Back Zlatan Ibrahimovic to score for AC Milan
    Shady’s tips:
    – Back Real Madrid to win
    – Take Ronaldo to score as first scorer, or Ronaldo to score at anytime

    Below is a mid-week list of Champions League odds:
    All kickoff times are AEDST, and the odds are from Luxbet (subject to change).

  • With the Caulfield Cup tomorrow, many Australian bookmakers are pushing promotions to encourage betting activity. Below is a selection of the available promotions.

    • Centrebet
      • Back Faint Perfume OR Dariana (you get both) to win the Caulfield Cup for $7.00
      • You can have Herculian Prince & Descarado (you get both) to win the Caulfield Cup for a combined $7.00
      • You can have Metal Bender & Triple Honour to win the Cup at a combined price of $7.00
    • IASbet
      • Place a win only (CITY SuperPrice) bet on Shocking in the Caulfield Cup and if he runs 2nd in the race, they’ll refund your bet up to $200
      • No margins will be added to the odds for selected races each Saturday between 11:00 AM and 12:00 PM AEDST
      • Every Saturday IASbet offers a 10% bonus on Doubles, Trebles and Quaddie winnings at selected venues
    • Luxbet
      • Existing members can deposit $30 or more with the promo code Bonus50 to receive a 100% bonus bet up to $50
      • New members receive a $100 Bonus Bet when making a first deposit of $25 or more using promo code Bonus100
      • Tote + 20% is available on all Melbourne Group Races during the Spring Carnival. Place a minimum $5 WIN bet on the Tote + 5% option and if your runner wins, you’ll receive an additional 15% Home Tote Bonus as an Account Top-Up, of up to $500 per race. The maximum Bonus Account Top-Up per week is $2,000.
    • Sportingbet
      • New members can deposit $30 to receive a $100 free bet
      • Make at least a $10 Maxidiv bet on Alcopop in the Caulfield Cup, and if he wins, you will receive a 25% Maxidiv Winners Bonus on top of your winnings
      • Sportingbet will guarantees the Best Tote Price on your Quaddie. Take a Quaddie at Caulfield on Saturday 16th October and they will result the Quaddies at highest price of the three totes, so no matter which tote you choose, you are guaranteed the best price on your winning Quaddie.
      • Sportingbet is offering a Melbourne Cup Free Bet to members who have a Caulfield Cup – Melbourne Cup Double up to $100. Simply have a min $10 bet on the Caulfield Cup – Melbourne Cup Double market and we will give you a Free Bet on the Melbourne Cup All-In Market equal to your stake up to $100.
    • Sportsbet
      • New members can receive a free bet up to the value of 20% of your initial deposit of up to $500.
      • This Saturday early bird punters will get receive a 20% bonus on the Caulfield Cup. Back a horse to Win or Each Way, and if your horse wins, you’ll receive a 20% bonus to your win dividend to a maximum of $100 cash. This applies to your first bet made between 11am-12pm AEDST on Saturday.
  • General 14.10.2010 No Comments

    As the Commonwealth Games come to a close today, there are two key events to keep an eye on. The first is the men’s hockey final between India and Australia. This is followed by the women’s netball final between Australia and New Zealand. I’m not sure of the exact start times, but Foxtel’s coverage starts at 4:50 PM AEST for the hockey final, and 6:50 PM AEST for the netball final.

    Men’s Hockey Final

    Australia qualified for the final after defeating New Zealand 6-2, while India qualified after beating England 5-4 in a penalty shoot-out. While Australia is the stronger team on paper, they will be up against a vociferous crowd. The Indian hockey team has captured the hearts of the country during the tournament, and Prime Minister Dr. Manmohan Singh is expected to attend the final. India had to rally from two goals down to level England 3-3 to force extra time and then penalties. This come from behind victory will certainly have boosted their self-belief, which will make things difficult for Australia this afternoon.

    Having said that, Australia are still the clear favourites with bookmakers. This is a result of Australia beating India 5-2 in a pool match earlier in the tournament. Below are some selected odds (subject to change).

      Gold Medal Winner Regular Time Odds
    Australia India Australia Draw India
    Betfair 1.05 5.10 1.27 6.80 8.20
    Centrebet 1.10 6.50 1.17 6.50 9.50
    Luxbet 1.10 6.75 1.18 7.00 9.25
    Sportingbet 1.10 6.50 1.18 7.00 9.25
    Sports Alive 1.11 6.25 1.22 6.25 8.50
    Sportsbet 1.12 5.85 N/A N/A N/A

     

    Women’s Netball Final

    The Netball final features the two teams that the neutrals were both hoping for and expecting: Australia vs New Zealand. New Zealand are the defending Commonwealth Games champions, while Australia are the number one ranked side in the world. Australia go into this fixture as the favourites, although I expect a tight encounter. New Zealand look to be in good form this tournament. The previous 2010 results between Australia and New Zealand are as follows:

    Date Event Venue Australia NZ Winner
    5-Sep-2010 New World Series Auckland 46 40 Australia
    2-Sep-2010 New World Series Wellington 40 59 NZ
    15-Aug-2010 Holden Netball Test Series Adelaide 48 43 Australia

     

    Selected betting odds are provided below (subject to change):

      Gold Medal Winner
    Australia NZ
    Betfair 1.46 2.52
    Centrebet 1.40 2.75
    Luxbet 1.48 2.65
    Sportingbet 1.50 2.50
    Sports Alive 1.47 2.70
    Sportsbet 1.42 2.70

     

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