• Formula 1 05.11.2010

    With two races to go, we’re now at the business end of the Formula 1 season, with five drivers still technically in contention to win the title. Unfortunately, the Brazilian Grand Prix takes place at 03:00 AEDST, so you’d have to be pretty keen to get up for it.

    Alonso goes into the penultimate race with the most momentum after Vettel and Webber failed to score points in Korea. The consensus seems to be that Red Bull have the most pace, but that Alonso is in the best position to win the title. If results go his way, Alonso could be crowned champion before heading to Abu Dhabi for the final race. However, one point to remember is Alonso is down to his last allowed engine for the season. Should he require another one for either Brazil or Abu Dhabi, he will be hit with a 10 position grid penalty, which would really put a spanner in the works.

    McLaren are currently off the pace of Red Bull and Ferrari. They will likely need to rely on mistakes, retirements and the weather to secure more points than their main rivals. Due to the inconsistency of Massa, Red Bull are in the box seat to take the Constructor’s championship. They currently hold 426 points versus 399 for McLaren and 374 for Ferrari.

    Rain is expected over the weekend, with Kubica stating that the Brazilian Grand Prix could be a lottery. Remember, Button has had an uncanny ability to make good decisions in the face of weather uncertainty this season. Changing weather patterns during the race will have a bigger impact than consistent rain, so it’s worth paying close attention to weather forecasts. The more unpredictable the weather, the better value the odds will be on the likes of Button, Kubica and other outside contenders.

    Red Bull have announced they will allow Vettel and Webber to fight it out this race. However, depending on the result, they may impose team orders for the final race in Abu Dhabi. Red Bull are optimistic about their chances in Brazil, with Vettel stating he believes the Interlagos circuit should suit Red Bull.

    Drivers Championship Scenario Analysis

    The following is courtesy of the BBC:

    • If Alonso wins in Brazil, he will be champion unless Webber is higher than fourth
    • If Alonso is second, he will be champion unless Webber is higher than eighth, Hamilton higher than fourth or Vettel wins
    • If Alonso is third, he will be champion unless Webber finishes in the top 10, Hamilton in the top four and Vettel in the top three
    • If Alonso does not finish on the podium, it will go to Abu Dhabi
    • Button can only stay in contention if he finishes first or second but is out if Alonso finishes in the top six or if Webber is in the top two
    • Vettel must beat Alonso on track to stay in contention

    The 2010 Season thus Far

    Below are the results for the first 17 races this season.

    Round Grand Prix Pole position Winning driver
    1 Bahrain Grand Prix Vettel Alonso
    2 Australian Grand Prix Vettel Button
    3 Malaysian Grand Prix Webber Vettel
    4 Chinese Grand Prix Vettel Button
    5 Spanish Grand Prix Webber Webber
    6 Monaco Grand Prix Webber Webber
    7 Turkish Grand Prix Webber Hamilton
    8 Canadian Grand Prix Hamilton Hamilton
    9 European Grand Prix Vettel Vettel
    10 British Grand Prix Vettel Webber
    11 German Grand Prix Vettel Alonso
    12 Hungarian Grand Prix Vettel Webber
    13 Belgian Grand Prix Webber Hamilton
    14 Italian Grand Prix Alonso Alonso
    15 Singapore Grand Prix Alonso Alonso
    16 Japanese Grand Prix Vettel Vettel
    17 Korean Grand Prix Vettel Alonso

     

    Form Guide

    Below are the current F1 standings, along with the points classifications for the past four races.

      Driver Points Korea
    24/10/2010
    Japan
    10/10/2010
    Singapore
    26/09/2010
    Italy
    12/09/2010
    Belgium
    29/08/2010
    1 Alonso 231
    25
    15
    25
    25
    (ret ) 0
    2 Webber 220
    (ret ) 0
    18
    15
    8
    18
    3 Hamilton 210
    18
    10
    (ret ) 0
    (ret ) 0
    25
    4 Vettel 206
    (ret ) 0
    25
    18
    12
    (15th) 0
    5 Button 189
    (12th) 0
    12
    12
    18
    (ret ) 0
    6 Massa 143
    15
    (ret ) 0
    4
    15
    12
    7 Kubica 124
    10
    (ret ) 0
    6
    4
    15
    8 Rosberg 122
    (ret ) 0
    (ret ) 0
    10
    10
    8
    9 Schumacher 66
    12
    8
    (13th) 0
    2
    6
    10 Barrichello 47
    6
    2
    8
    1
    (ret ) 0

     

    Odds

    Below are selected Luxbet odds (subject to change).

    Betting Tips

    For pole position betting, you can currently get 2.84 on Vettel with Betfair, which is good value given he has won 9 out of 17 qualifying sessions this season, including the last two races. Odds of 3.95 on Webber aren’t too bad either. Any bets on drivers other than Vettel, Webber, Alonso, Hamilton and Button are probably going to be a waste of money, even if it does rain. Only Vettel (x9), Webber (x5), Alonso (x2) and Hamilton (x1) have secured pole positions this year. If you are the cautious type, I would delay placing bets until you have seen the practice session results.

    You can currently get 1.79 odds on a Safety Car being deployed with Betfair, which seems to be good value given the weather forecast on Sunday.

    I would hold off on race winner betting until the qualifying session has concluded on Saturday. Take note that only Alonso (x5), Button (x2), Vettel (x3), Webber (x4) and Hamilton (x3) have won races this season, although Alonso’s victory in Germany was a result of Massa pulling aside to let him win. When considering whether to back the pole position winner, keep in mind that the driver on pole has gone on to win 7 of the 17 races so far this season.

    Posted by admin @ 9:31 pm

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