• Formula 1 05.11.2010 No Comments

    With two races to go, we’re now at the business end of the Formula 1 season, with five drivers still technically in contention to win the title. Unfortunately, the Brazilian Grand Prix takes place at 03:00 AEDST, so you’d have to be pretty keen to get up for it.

    Alonso goes into the penultimate race with the most momentum after Vettel and Webber failed to score points in Korea. The consensus seems to be that Red Bull have the most pace, but that Alonso is in the best position to win the title. If results go his way, Alonso could be crowned champion before heading to Abu Dhabi for the final race. However, one point to remember is Alonso is down to his last allowed engine for the season. Should he require another one for either Brazil or Abu Dhabi, he will be hit with a 10 position grid penalty, which would really put a spanner in the works.

    McLaren are currently off the pace of Red Bull and Ferrari. They will likely need to rely on mistakes, retirements and the weather to secure more points than their main rivals. Due to the inconsistency of Massa, Red Bull are in the box seat to take the Constructor’s championship. They currently hold 426 points versus 399 for McLaren and 374 for Ferrari.

    Rain is expected over the weekend, with Kubica stating that the Brazilian Grand Prix could be a lottery. Remember, Button has had an uncanny ability to make good decisions in the face of weather uncertainty this season. Changing weather patterns during the race will have a bigger impact than consistent rain, so it’s worth paying close attention to weather forecasts. The more unpredictable the weather, the better value the odds will be on the likes of Button, Kubica and other outside contenders.

    Red Bull have announced they will allow Vettel and Webber to fight it out this race. However, depending on the result, they may impose team orders for the final race in Abu Dhabi. Red Bull are optimistic about their chances in Brazil, with Vettel stating he believes the Interlagos circuit should suit Red Bull.

    Drivers Championship Scenario Analysis

    The following is courtesy of the BBC:

    • If Alonso wins in Brazil, he will be champion unless Webber is higher than fourth
    • If Alonso is second, he will be champion unless Webber is higher than eighth, Hamilton higher than fourth or Vettel wins
    • If Alonso is third, he will be champion unless Webber finishes in the top 10, Hamilton in the top four and Vettel in the top three
    • If Alonso does not finish on the podium, it will go to Abu Dhabi
    • Button can only stay in contention if he finishes first or second but is out if Alonso finishes in the top six or if Webber is in the top two
    • Vettel must beat Alonso on track to stay in contention

    The 2010 Season thus Far

    Below are the results for the first 17 races this season.

    Round Grand Prix Pole position Winning driver
    1 Bahrain Grand Prix Vettel Alonso
    2 Australian Grand Prix Vettel Button
    3 Malaysian Grand Prix Webber Vettel
    4 Chinese Grand Prix Vettel Button
    5 Spanish Grand Prix Webber Webber
    6 Monaco Grand Prix Webber Webber
    7 Turkish Grand Prix Webber Hamilton
    8 Canadian Grand Prix Hamilton Hamilton
    9 European Grand Prix Vettel Vettel
    10 British Grand Prix Vettel Webber
    11 German Grand Prix Vettel Alonso
    12 Hungarian Grand Prix Vettel Webber
    13 Belgian Grand Prix Webber Hamilton
    14 Italian Grand Prix Alonso Alonso
    15 Singapore Grand Prix Alonso Alonso
    16 Japanese Grand Prix Vettel Vettel
    17 Korean Grand Prix Vettel Alonso

     

    Form Guide

    Below are the current F1 standings, along with the points classifications for the past four races.

      Driver Points Korea
    24/10/2010
    Japan
    10/10/2010
    Singapore
    26/09/2010
    Italy
    12/09/2010
    Belgium
    29/08/2010
    1 Alonso 231
    25
    15
    25
    25
    (ret ) 0
    2 Webber 220
    (ret ) 0
    18
    15
    8
    18
    3 Hamilton 210
    18
    10
    (ret ) 0
    (ret ) 0
    25
    4 Vettel 206
    (ret ) 0
    25
    18
    12
    (15th) 0
    5 Button 189
    (12th) 0
    12
    12
    18
    (ret ) 0
    6 Massa 143
    15
    (ret ) 0
    4
    15
    12
    7 Kubica 124
    10
    (ret ) 0
    6
    4
    15
    8 Rosberg 122
    (ret ) 0
    (ret ) 0
    10
    10
    8
    9 Schumacher 66
    12
    8
    (13th) 0
    2
    6
    10 Barrichello 47
    6
    2
    8
    1
    (ret ) 0

     

    Odds

    Below are selected Luxbet odds (subject to change).

    Betting Tips

    For pole position betting, you can currently get 2.84 on Vettel with Betfair, which is good value given he has won 9 out of 17 qualifying sessions this season, including the last two races. Odds of 3.95 on Webber aren’t too bad either. Any bets on drivers other than Vettel, Webber, Alonso, Hamilton and Button are probably going to be a waste of money, even if it does rain. Only Vettel (x9), Webber (x5), Alonso (x2) and Hamilton (x1) have secured pole positions this year. If you are the cautious type, I would delay placing bets until you have seen the practice session results.

    You can currently get 1.79 odds on a Safety Car being deployed with Betfair, which seems to be good value given the weather forecast on Sunday.

    I would hold off on race winner betting until the qualifying session has concluded on Saturday. Take note that only Alonso (x5), Button (x2), Vettel (x3), Webber (x4) and Hamilton (x3) have won races this season, although Alonso’s victory in Germany was a result of Massa pulling aside to let him win. When considering whether to back the pole position winner, keep in mind that the driver on pole has gone on to win 7 of the 17 races so far this season.

Bet with the Best!
  • Formula 1 08.10.2010 No Comments

    Looking at the sporting lineup this weekend, the Suzuka F1 Grand Prix in Japan is the event I’m most excited about. After a string of European races, followed by the night race in Singapore, I’m looking forward to a race start that starts at a more convenient 5:00 PM AEST this Sunday. Japan is the fourth to last fixture on this year’s calendar, with Korea, Brazil and Abu Dhabi to host the final races of the season.

    The Season Thus Far

    Renault and McLaren-Mercedes dominated races 2 through 10, but Ferarri, or should I say, Fernando Alonso, has come into his own over the past few races. He definitely has the momentum going into the tail end of the season.

    Driver’s Championship

    Those of you with good memory will recall my February post Webber a Good Value Bet for the F1 Championship?. Fortunately, I took my own advice and have since been able to lock in a guaranteed profit for the driver’s championship. I have still left myself open to receiving a nice payout if Webber or Vettel do win the championship.

    Prior to the race, the standings are as follows, along with selected bookmaker odds on each driver to win this year’s driver’s championship.

    Position Driver Team Points Odds
    Betfair Luxbet Sportsbet
    1 Mark Webber RBR-Renault 202 2.90 2.65 2.60
    2 Fernando Alonso Ferrari 191 3.45 2.85 3.00
    3 Lewis Hamilton McLaren-Mercedes 182 9.20 7.50 6.50
    4 Sebastian Vettel RBR-Renault 181 4.20 4.50 4.00
    5 Jenson Button McLaren-Mercedes 177 26.00 21.00 16.00

     

    Please note that these odds are prior to the Japanese Grand Prix qualifying, and are subject to change based on the qualifying results.

    Reputations seem to be playing a large part in the odds, because Button is only 4 points behind Vettel, and Button is the reigning F1 champion. For those who don’t watch F1 regularly, Vettel and Hamilton are considered to be faster than their respective teammates. At the same time, however, they’re less reliable in race conditions, with both Vettel and Hamilton having lost points this season after taking unnecessary risks. If Alonso’s car is as competitive as it was during the last two races, he would be my pick for the title.

    Constructor’s Championship

    Due to Massa’s poor performance this season, the Constructor’s Championship will most likely go to either Renault or McLaren-Mercedes.

    Position Team Points Odds
    Betfair Luxbet Sportsbet
    1 RBR-Renault 383 1.27 1.25 1.16
    2 McLaren-Mercedes 359 5.70 4.50 4.50
    3 Ferrari 319 20.00 13.00 17.00

     

    With so few races left in the season, these odds could drastically change if one team misses out on a lot of points in Japan. Unless Massa suddenly finds some form, I doubt that Ferrari will finish higher than third.

    Japanese Grand Prix

    Below are selected odds for the Japanese Grand Prix. If I can find the time, I will update these odds after qualifying has finished on Saturday. So far, Red Bull have been the fastest in the Friday practice sessions. Hamilton crashed out, and missed the bulk of practice whilst he waited for his car to be repaired.

    Driver Winner Podium Finish
    (Top 3)
    Pole Position
    Betfair Luxbet Sports
    bet
    Betfair Luxbet Sports
    bet
    Betfair Luxbet Sports
    bet
    S Vettel 2.48 2.40 2.50 1.51 1.28 1.36 2.32 2.15 2.20
    M Webber 4.40 3.50 4.25 1.66 1.50 1.57 4.20 3.25 3.75
    F Alonso 6.40 5 5 1.58 1.55 1.57 8.60 5.50 6.50
    L Hamilton 8.20 7 7 2.20 2.25 2.10 9.80 8 7
    J Button 16 15 12 3.25 3.25 3.20 22 17 17
    F Massa 48 31 23 4.20 5 5 36 23 21
    R Kubica 44 34 41 5.50 5 5 32 26 23
    N Rosberg 75 81 81 9.60 13 11 150 67 67
    M Schumacher 110 151 101 29 21 34 200 126 101
    A Sutil 260 101 126 15 15 34 130 51 81
    N Hulkenberg 280 201 126 29 34 34 140 201 201
    R Barrichello 210 126 151 16 15 19 170 81 151
    S Buemi 310 501 201 44 101 101 260 501 501
    V Petrov 290 251 201 44 51 41 260 201 251
    V Liuzzi 260 401 201 55 81 101 260 401 401
    K Kobayashi 330 251 201 46 67 51 260 251 201
    N Heidfeld 260 251 201 46 67 67 260 301 201
    T Glock 1000 2001 501 100 301 501 1000 2001 501
    S Yamamoto 1000 3001 501 100 801 501 1000 3001 501
    J Alguersuari 310 501 501 44 101 101 260 501 501
    L Di Grassi 1000 2001 501 100 501 501 1000 2001 501
    B Senna 1000 3001 501 100 801 501 1000 3001 501
    J Trulli 1000 1501 501 100 251 201 1000 1501 501
    H Kovalainen 1000 1501 501 100 251 401 1000 1501 501

     

    Given the problems that Hamilton has had in practice, I’m suprised to see how much shorter the odds are on him than Button. It looks like everyone is expecting a Renault one-two tomorrow in qualifying. Alonso was able to spoil their fun in Singapore. Can he do the same tomorrow?

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