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  • General 19.10.2010 No Comments

    With a number of mid-week games for the Champions League coming up, below are some betting tips.

    Arsenal v Shakhtar Donetsk
    Andy’s tips:
    – Back Arsenal to win
    – Back Arsenal to win 2-0
    Patrick’s tip:
    – Back both teams to score
    Auls’ tip:
    – Back Arsenal to win

    Spartak Moscow v Chelsea
    Andy’s tip:
    – Back Chelsea to win
    Pantocrator’s tip:
    – Back Chelsea (-0.25) as a handicap bet
    Auls’ tips:
    – Back a 0-1 score
    – Back under 2.5 goals
    My comments
    – Take note that Chelsea will be without Drogba, Alex and Lampard

    Ajax v Auxerre
    Patrick’s tip:
    – Back Ajax to win to nil

    Bayern Munich v CFR 1907 Cluj-Napoca
    Patrick’s tip:
    – Back Bayern Munich (-1.5 handicap) to beat Cluj
    ROzolt’s tip:
    – Back a 2-1 scoreline
    – Back over 2.5 goals

    Roma v Basle
    Patrick’s tip:
    – Back over 2.5 goals

    Rangers v Valencia
    Andy’s tip:
    – Back Rangers to win

    Inter Milan v Tottenham
    Andy’s tip:
    – Back 1-1 draw

    Real Madrid v AC Milan
    Maldini’s tips::
    – Back Real Madrid to win
    – Back under 2.5 goals
    Patrick’s tip:
    – Back Zlatan Ibrahimovic to score for AC Milan
    Shady’s tips:
    – Back Real Madrid to win
    – Take Ronaldo to score as first scorer, or Ronaldo to score at anytime

    Below is a mid-week list of Champions League odds:
    All kickoff times are AEDST, and the odds are from Luxbet (subject to change).

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  • General 14.10.2010 No Comments

    As the Commonwealth Games come to a close today, there are two key events to keep an eye on. The first is the men’s hockey final between India and Australia. This is followed by the women’s netball final between Australia and New Zealand. I’m not sure of the exact start times, but Foxtel’s coverage starts at 4:50 PM AEST for the hockey final, and 6:50 PM AEST for the netball final.

    Men’s Hockey Final

    Australia qualified for the final after defeating New Zealand 6-2, while India qualified after beating England 5-4 in a penalty shoot-out. While Australia is the stronger team on paper, they will be up against a vociferous crowd. The Indian hockey team has captured the hearts of the country during the tournament, and Prime Minister Dr. Manmohan Singh is expected to attend the final. India had to rally from two goals down to level England 3-3 to force extra time and then penalties. This come from behind victory will certainly have boosted their self-belief, which will make things difficult for Australia this afternoon.

    Having said that, Australia are still the clear favourites with bookmakers. This is a result of Australia beating India 5-2 in a pool match earlier in the tournament. Below are some selected odds (subject to change).

      Gold Medal Winner Regular Time Odds
    Australia India Australia Draw India
    Betfair 1.05 5.10 1.27 6.80 8.20
    Centrebet 1.10 6.50 1.17 6.50 9.50
    Luxbet 1.10 6.75 1.18 7.00 9.25
    Sportingbet 1.10 6.50 1.18 7.00 9.25
    Sports Alive 1.11 6.25 1.22 6.25 8.50
    Sportsbet 1.12 5.85 N/A N/A N/A

     

    Women’s Netball Final

    The Netball final features the two teams that the neutrals were both hoping for and expecting: Australia vs New Zealand. New Zealand are the defending Commonwealth Games champions, while Australia are the number one ranked side in the world. Australia go into this fixture as the favourites, although I expect a tight encounter. New Zealand look to be in good form this tournament. The previous 2010 results between Australia and New Zealand are as follows:

    Date Event Venue Australia NZ Winner
    5-Sep-2010 New World Series Auckland 46 40 Australia
    2-Sep-2010 New World Series Wellington 40 59 NZ
    15-Aug-2010 Holden Netball Test Series Adelaide 48 43 Australia

     

    Selected betting odds are provided below (subject to change):

      Gold Medal Winner
    Australia NZ
    Betfair 1.46 2.52
    Centrebet 1.40 2.75
    Luxbet 1.48 2.65
    Sportingbet 1.50 2.50
    Sports Alive 1.47 2.70
    Sportsbet 1.42 2.70

     

  • General 22.09.2010 No Comments

    Here is a preview of the 2010 AFL Grand Final between Collingwood and St. Kilda. The game takes place at the MCG on Saturday, the 15th, at 2:30 PM AEST. I will try to post additional information in the lead up to the game.

    Betting Odds

    (Subject to change)

    Bookmaker Team Head to Head Line
    bet365 Collingwood 1.40 1.90 (-16.5)
    St. Kilda 3.00 1.90 (+16.5)
    Betfair Collingwood 1.45 1.99 (-16.5)
    St. Kilda 3.15 2.00 (+16.5)
    Centrebet Collingwood 1.44 1.92 (-16.5)
    St. Kilda 2.83 1.92 (+16.5)
    IASbet Collingwood 1.43 1.92 (-16.5)
    St. Kilda 2.85 1.92 (+16.5)
    Luxbet Collingwood 1.43 1.91 (-16.5)
    St. Kilda 2.90 1.91 (+16.5)
    Pinnacle Sports Collingwood 1.433 1.917 (-16.5)
    St. Kilda 3.06 1.99 (+16.5)
    Sportingbet Collingwood 1.42 1.91 (-16.5)
    St. Kilda 2.90 1.91 (+16.5)
    Sports Alive Collingwood 1.40 1.90 (-16.5)
    St. Kilda 3.00 1.94 (+16.5)
    Sportsbet Collingwood 1.43 1.92 (-16.5)
    St. Kilda 2.85 1.92 (+16.5)
    TAB Sportsbet Collingwood 1.45 1.90 (-16.5)
    St. Kilda 2.70 1.90 (+16.5)
    William Hill Collingwood 1.40 1.83 (-16.5)
    St. Kilda 2.75 1.83 (+16.5)

     

    2010 Regular Season Standings

    Team Position W L D F A % Pts
    Collingwood 1 17 4 1 2349 1658 141.68 70
    St. Kilda 3 15 6 1 1935 1591 121.62 62

     

    Previous Encounters

    Date Fixture Team Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Final
    17-Jul-2010
    2:10 PM AEST
    Round 16, MCG St. Kilda 1.4 3.5 4.11 6.16 52
    Collingwood 4.4 7.7 11.7 15.10 100
    9-Apr-2010
    7:40 PM AEST
    Round 3, Etihad Stadium St. Kilda 2.2 4.5 6.6 10.9 69
    Collingwood 1.4 4.8 4.14 4.17 41
    6-Sep-2009
    2:40 PM AEST
    First Qualifying Final, MCG St. Kilda 1.2 6.4 9.7 12.8 80
    Collingwood 2.4 4.6 6.8 7.10 52

     

    Miscellaneous Info

    • Form guide: Collingwood: WWLWW, St. Kilda: WWLWW
    • Collingwood has a terrible Grand Final record, with one victory in 1990 out of its 11 appearances since 1958
    • During the regular season, Collingwood was ranked second for most points scored, while St. Kilda was ranked first for fewest points conceded
    • “Collingwood’s favouritism is based partly on an impressive 48-point victory over St Kilda in round 16. However, with captain Riewoldt then only just returned from a serious hamstring injury and the Saints at a low ebb, that margin is deceptive. Incredibly well drilled by coach Ross Lyon, the Saints are driven by last year’s heartbreaking defeat.” (Brisbane Times)
    • “Collingwood goes into the big match as favourite and rightly so after clinically dispatching the reigning premier by 41 points in the preliminary final – a margin which flattered Geelong.” (AFL.com.au)
    • Collingwood will be without Tom Hunter (neck) and Brad Dick (shoulder)
    • St. Kilda will be without Raphael Clarke (hamstring tendon) and Jesse Smith (ankle)
    • “Both sides had the benefit of a week off after qualifying final wins, but both also have injury concerns. Luke Ball’s left hamstring will come under plenty of scrutiny this week after he left the game against the Cats prematurely, while Nick Dal Santo (hamstring) and Jason Gram (groin) were also hampered late in their last outings.” (AFL.com.au)
    • Jason Phelan’s prediction: Collingwood by 13 points
    • Ben Waterworth’s tip: St. Kilda to win, with Lenny Hayes to win the Norm Smith Medal
  • General 10.09.2010 No Comments

    This weekend offers a plethora of sporting markets for betting enthusiasts. Below is a selection of sporting events to keep an eye on.

    NFL

    The 2010/11 NFL season kicks off this weekend. There are no Saturday games, presumably because it’s a 9/11 anniversary. I watch the occasional NFL and College game, but I tend to rely on other people’s opinions when placing bets. A good source of information is the American website FanIQ. You can view both the FanIQ prediction, which is based on the aggregate opinion of the website’s members, and the Vegas & Expert’s opinion for each fixture. If you sign up for membership, which is free, you can also access in depth previews of each game.

    If you’re a serious sports better, you may be interested in the paid service AccuScore. AccuScore in an American service that provides pre-game statistical analysis for NFL, MLB, NBA, College Football and College Basketball. The statistics are based on simulated projections and adviser picks. Daily line reports with historical pick records are available, along with live betting predictions and much more. I haven’t used this service myself, but I would love to get feedback from someone who has.

    NRL Finals

    Bookmakers have even odds on Wests Tigers v Sydney Roosters. The Titans (1.60) are marginal favourites against the Warriors (2.38), as are the Panthers (1.57) who will be playing the Raiders (2.45). The Dragons (1.16) start as heavy favourites against the Sea Eagles (5.50), with a line bet of -16.5 points.

    AFL Finals

    Geelong v Freemantle
    Geelong (1.12) are the heavy favourites, with Freemantle (6.80) given a 39.5 point head start for the line bet.

    Western Bulldogs v Sydney
    This game is expected to be much tighter, with Sydney (1.82) the marginal favourites over the Bulldogs (2.02).

    Bledisloe Cup – Australia v All Blacks

    The Tri Nations game kicks off at 8:00 PM this Saturday at ANZ Stadium in Sydney. New Zealand are the favourites for this fixture, with odds of 1.45 and a line bet of -6.0. It will be interesting to see how fresh Australia (2.75) look after making the trip back from South Africa.

    Formula 1

    The Italian Grand Prix is this weekend, hot on the heels of the fantastic Belgian Grand Prix a fortnight ago. I’m surprised to see that Hamilton (2.62) is given much shorter odds than his teammate Button (7.50) to win. Despite the fact that Webber (6.50) has consistently outperformed his teammate Vettel (5.50) on race day, he is still longer odds to win the race. Alonso (5.00) is the second favourite for a win, which is interesting, given his poor qualifying performance in Belgium. This season has been fantastic so far. With Channel One showing most races live in Australia, there’s never been a better time to get into F1.

    US Open Tennis

    The US Open concludes this weekend, with everyone in New York hoping for a Federer vs. Nadal final. I’ve heard that Federer has never lost a night match at the US Open, and he looks to be in fantastic form thus far. Unfortunately, the reigning men’s champion Del Potro couldn’t participate, along with Serena Williams. In the women’s event, everyone is wondering if Wozniacki can win her first Grand Slam title.

    European Football

    After a week off for international Euro qualifiers, the likes of the English Premier League are back in action this weekend. If you’re ever looking for Premier League score predictions, check out Lawro’s predictions on the BBC website. He got six out of ten correct last round, with two perfect scores.

    If you struggle to find good value on top division games, I highly recommend you start looking into lower division football. I speak from experience, because statistically, the sport I have performed the best at is the English Championship, which is one division below the Premier League.

    Basketball – 2010 FIBA World Championship

    We’re at the semi finals stage, and the United States, despite not fielding a first string team, are the hot favourites for the title. Turkey, who are the host nation, must be delighted to have made the semi-finals. You can view the brackets at the official website.

    Domestic Rugby Union

    The ITM Cup in New Zealand enters Week 7, while the Currie Cup in South Africa enters Week 8.

    Phew! That’s most of it, anyway. I’ve never felt so spoiled for choice. Enjoy your weekend!

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  • General 30.08.2010 No Comments

    After the News of the World uncovered the latest cricket betting scandal, I wonder whether bookmakers should simply cease providing betting markets regarding Pakistani cricket for the foreseeable future.

    For those who haven’t already heard, the News of the World met up with a match fixer posing as representatives of a Far East Gambling cartel. After paying the fixer £150,000, they were informed of three intentional no balls to be bowled in the Test against England on Thursday and Friday at Lord’s. The fixer claimed to have seven Pakistani cricketers in his pocket who were accepting payments from bookies and betting syndicates.

    Sure enough, the no balls were delivered exactly as promised. The photo below illustrates one of the no balls that were bowled by Amir. He certainly made sure the Umpire would ping him for it!

    To make matters worse, the match fixer claimed that the SCG test in January was also rigged. Pakistan lost their last nine wickets for 89 runs to give Australia a sensational victory. This leads one to assume that most of Pakistan’s recent fixtures have involved rigging on some level or another.

    With the Pakistani cricketers continuing to play on low salaries (I’ve heard figures of $35,000 per year for some players), you can imagine they will always be tempted to accept funds to deliver on certain actions, especially when such actions involve only one player. Short of banning Pakistani cricket altogether, perhaps bookmakers should be forced to cease accepting wagers on any market concerning the Pakistani team. To send a message to fellow players, I hope that those who are found to have cheated are hit with lengthy bans.

    Sources:

  • General 27.08.2010 No Comments

    The NRL is investigating suspicious betting activity on the fixture between the Cowboys and the Bulldogs last Saturday.

    Virtually every bookmaker closed betting on the first scoring play after a surge in bets on a penalty goal for the Cowboys. This is typically not a popular bet. It is also a high odds bet, with odds typically around 12.00 to 13.00 for a home team penalty goal.

    For the Cowboys vs. Bulldogs fixture the TAB Sportsbet odds plunged from 13.00 to 7.00 after bets started pouring in on Thursday. Sports Alive closed its market after a punter tried to wager $1000 at 8.00 odds. The most drastic odds drop may have occurred at Centrebet, where they fell from 13.00 to 3.00.

    Ironically, the bet lost! This is despite the fact that the Cowboys were awarded an absolute sitter of a penalty right in front of the posts only nine metres out. The Cowboys opted instead for a quick tap and scored out wide to open the scoring. I’m sure the players who committed the penalty will be under investigation.

    I would be interested to hear what happened at Betfair, where you can bet both for and against each outcome. I would love to lay a bet against a home team penalty goal at odds of 3.00!

    This is the first case I’ve seen where the dubious betting concerned a losing bet. With the Briggs boxing scandal and the Davydenko match the heavily backed outcome won. I’m sure the fact that the Cowboys were awarded an easy penalty opportunity will be one of the motivations for the enquiry.

    Source:
    SMH – NRL investigates ‘inordinate’ betting plunge on penalty goal market

  • With the Australian Federal election tomorrow, now is your final chance to place your bets!

    Below are some of the latest odds. Please note that these odds could change quickly and radically. These odds are accurate as of 5:17 PM on August 20th. Also, as a warning, Sportsbet currently offers odds on who will be PM at the 2013 Federal Election, which some punters may misinterpret as the winner of the 2010 election. These bets won’t pay out for years!

    Note that an arbitrage opportunity exists! Provided the odds don’t move, you can profit by betting against a hung parliament with Centrebet and for a hung parliament with Sportingbet. Remember, an arbitrage opportunity exists whenever the reciprocals of the odds sum to less than one. In this case 1/3.00 + 1/1.64 = 0.943. Use the arbitrage calculator to calculate your strategy. Note that you are exposed to some risk, because a bookmaker may reject your bet or change the odds after you have placed a bet with the other agency. Update: Sportingbet has shortened its odds, but the arbitrage opportunity still exists, so you better be quick!

    Australian Federal Election – Winner

      Labor Party     Coalition
    Sportsbet 1.45 2.75 (any other party)
    Sportingbet 1.48 2.60
    Centrebet 1.48 2.62
    Luxbet 1.50 2.55
    Sports Alive     1.48 2.60
    IASbet 1.45 2.75 (any other party)

     

    Hung Parliament

      Yes No
    Sportsbet 2.90 1.37
    Sportingbet 3.00 1.35
    Centrebet 2.15     1.64
    Luxbet N/A N/A
    Sports Alive      N/A N/A
    IASbet N/A N/A

     

  • General 12.08.2010 2 Comments

    With the English Premier League due to kick off this weekend, here is a preview the bookmaker odds for the 2010/11 season.

    Winner

    Chelsea is this year’s favourite, followed by Manchester United. Most bookmakers have Manchester City as having a better chance of winning than Arsenal, although Arsenal has shorter odds of the two at Betfair.

    Below are the winner odds at the time of writing. The best available odds for each outcome are highlighted in bold (after accounting for Betfair fees).

      Chelsea    Man Utd    Arsenal    Man City    Liverpool    Tottenham   
    bet365 2.62 3.25 6.50 6.50 13.00 34.00
    Betfair 2.92 3.40 7.00 8.20 15.50 38.00
    Canbet 2.75 3.20 6.00 7.00 12.00 34.00
    Centrebet 2.35 3.00 7.00 6.00 12.00 34.00
    Sportsbet 2.70 3.40 7.00 6.00 13.00 34.00
    Sportingbet 2.50 3.50 7.50 5.50 13.00 34.00
    William Hill 2.62 3.40 7.00 5.50 15.00 26.00
    Luxbet 2.65 3.25 6.00 5.50 14.00 36.00
    Sports Alive 2.55 3.25 7.00 5.25 14.00 26.00
    IASBet 2.70 3.40 7.00 6.00 13.00 34.00
    TAB Sportsbet    2.50 3.25 7.00 6.00 10.00 26.00

     

    Month End Top for August

    Betfair offers a market for the top team at the end of August. Due to the drop in predictability over a shorter period of time, the likes of Tottenham (14.00), Manchester City (14.00), Aston Villa (21.00) and Liverpool (17.00) provide decent value. I haven’t done so myself, but it would be worth looking at the fixtures list over this period.

    Relegation

    Blackpool is the favourite to be relegated. One bookmaker offers odds of 1.01 for Blackpool to end in the bottom ten. This is a ridiculous bet because the wager won’t settle until May next year. A 1% return from August to May is far less than you could get risk-free in an online savings account in Australia. Heck, if I was a bookmaker I would happily offer 1.01 odds on Blackpool to still be located in England by May next year. You should always consider the time value of money when making betting decisions on events that don’t settle for a considerable amount of time.

  • General 06.08.2010 No Comments

    Launched in April 2010, Galileo Managed Sports Fund is apparently the world’s first sports betting hedge fund. The company is aiming to acquire €50 million in invested funds, with a minimum buy in of €100,000. The fund aims to deliver 15-25% returns per annum after fees.

    The hedge fund’s strategy is to bet on sporting markets where they feel they have a comparative advantage. This advantage is attained using proprietary computer models. The fund looks for sports markets where emotions impact the odds. They also target markets where they can undertake more research on the teams than the bookmakers. Most of the trading takes place during live games. The fund always designates odds at which it will pull out prior to placing any bets.

    Galileo’s managing director estimates he’s making $400 per hour as a sports trader. The fund employs five traders and four analysts, all of whom have some finance background.

    All I can say is, good luck to them! Time will tell whether they can deliver consistent returns that adequately compensate their investors for the fund’s risk. Much of the risk for investors stems from the uncertainty over how risky the fund actually is! With equity and property you can view historical returns, and use measures like value at risk, standard deviation, etc., to measure risk. With a fund like this, however, investors have no fund performance history with which to do this.

    Another issue for me is liquidity. Due to limited market depth on many sports markets on exchanges such as Betfair, the more funds that are under management, the more limited the sports betting options. This may lead to a drop in the percentage of funds that can be wagered at any given time. As a fund manager in a sports betting market, it’s much easier to deliver a target return with $100,000 of funds under management than a million.

    The major upside of a fund like this, however, is its performance will have no correlation with the stock market, commodity prices, property prices, or any other alternative investment. This will certainly appeal to investors who are looking to diversity their portfolio.

    I wonder when Australia will have its first sports betting hedge fund? Any prospective entrant will be hoping that Galileo can prove successful to help them woo local investors. So, watch this space!

    Source:
    Business Week – A League of Their Own

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